Has the incidence of brain cancer risen in Australia since the introduction of mobile phones 29 years ago?

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This ecological study compared mobile phone ownership with the incidence of brain cancer in Australia. In the study, brain cancer incidence rates from 1982 to 2012 are compared with the number of mobile phone accounts in the Australian population from 1987 to 2012. The percentage of the population having mobile phone accounts increased from 0% in 1987 to 94% in 2014. During the 30 year period age-adjusted (adult) brain cancer incidence rates increased slightly in males but were stable in females. Significant increases in brain cancer incidence were observed only in the elderly (aged ≥ 70 years), but the increase in incidence in this age group began from 1982, before the introduction of mobile phones. The study also modelled the expected incidence assuming risk estimates of 1.5 in ever-users of mobile phones, and 2.5 in a proportion of 'heavy users', assuming a 10 year latency period between use and incidence of brain cancer. The authors concluded that after nearly 30 years of mobile phone use in Australia among millions of people, there is no evidence of any rise in any age group that could be plausibly attributed to mobile phones.

Link to PubMed abstract

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There have been a number of ecological studies internationally that have compared the incidence of brain cancer with the number of mobile phone accounts over time. In Australia, Dobes et al (2011a, 2011b) reported no overall increase in the incidence of brain tumours between 2000-2008 in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. There was, however, a significant increase in malignant brain tumours which was largely due to an increase in the ≥ 65-year age group, consistent with the Chapman et al results. Although the Chapman study does not investigate brain cancer sub-types it mentions that 80% of all brain cancers are gliomas.

The ecological studies on mobile phone use and brain cancer have been evaluated by a number of recent authoritative reviews (IARC, 2013 (PDF 6.1 mb); ARPANSA, 2014; SCENIHR, 2015 (PDF 5.1 mb)). Overall, as pointed out by the SCENIHR review, the ecological studies consistently show little indication of an increase in the age groups of most active mobile phone users and steady weak increases only in the elderly. It must be noted that overall these ecological studies are limited in many ways and provide the least evidence for a causal association.

Similar to the Chapman study, two previous studies have modelled the data to predict the expected brain tumour rates assuming increased risk estimates between mobile phone use and brain tumour (Deltour, 2012; Little 2012). Similar to the Chapman study, the previous studies showed that if the increased risk estimates were true than one would expect a much higher brain tumour incidence than what is currently observed.

Some case-control studies have reported possible associations between heavy mobile phone users and brain tumour. Based largely on this limited evidence the International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified radiofrequency fields as possibly carcinogenic to humans. More rigorous long-term studies are being coordinated by the World Health Organization and Australia is taking part in this research program.